TIME Magazineのインスタグラム(time) - 8月10日 21時00分

In the scientific race to predict dangerous #storms, many experts believe the U.S. has fallen behind. In 2012, Europe’s weather center correctly foresaw that Superstorm Sandy would smash into the East Coast even as the U.S. computer model was projecting no landfall. Since then, the relative accuracy of “the Euro model” has only gotten more publicity, putting American #weather prowess under scrutiny. The stakes are enormous: from saving lives in severe storms and guiding farmers and manufacturers on key decisions to supporting emerging industries like self-driving cars and delivery drones, meteorology plays a critical, often under-appreciated role in public safety and economic growth. National Weather Service figures put the number of U.S. weather-related deaths last year at 508, a figure that doesn’t include unofficial estimates of Hurricane Maria–related deaths in Puerto Rico that range from hundreds to more than 1,000. The cost to the economy from weather and climate in 2017 was estimated at $306 billion. In this summer of extreme events, from brutal heat waves to deadly forest fires, everyone wants to know what the weather will do next. A short drive from the New Jersey shoreline, which was devastated by Sandy, an unlikely oracle by the name of Shian-Jiann Lin has invented a better way to predict the future. Lin is a scientist, not a psychic. His crystal ball is a super-computer and a set of mathematical equations; his rituals involve dividing the sky into imaginary boxes and the prognostications he pursues can help millions avoid, or at least prepare for, disaster. The next-generation weather forecast model that Lin and his team at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton have devised, called FV3, is about to become a linchpin for U.S. meteorologists. Louis Uccellini, director of the NWS, describes FV3 as “a major breakthrough” and tells TIME that progress is now ahead of schedule, with the revamped model set to exit testing and become operational in early 2019. The goal: put the U.S. global forecast model back on top in a world being reshaped by #climatechange. Read more on TIME.com. Photograph by @bryananselm—@reduxpictures for TIME

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